AP STATISTICS (Grades 11 & 12)
HYPOTHESIS TESTING VIDEO PROJECT
January/February 2017
Objective: To undestand hypothesis testing for 1 proportion.
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Development of Skill: You are now familiar with the general ideas and vocabulary of hypotheses testing. You also know how to translate a research question into statistical hypotheses about a population proportion and how to test the hypotheses using small samples. Now you will apply your knowledge in other to answer other research questions.
Documentation of Process: Each team (2-3 students) will compile a video of the process of attempting to prove a teacher wrong. The video will be due next week, but you will start now with the following tasks:
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As a group, create a categorical question about Galloway UL students. For example, "What proportion of TGS UL students drive to school?"
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Ask a teacher to give their answer....this will be the Null Hypothesis. For example, Ms. Saracusa says 23% of students drive to school, so then H0: p = .23. Record the teacher, with clear audio, stating their claim.
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As a group, decide if you think the true proportion is less then, greater than, or just different than the teacher's statement. For example, your group thinks it is higher, so then HA: p > .23.
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Create a random sample of Galloway UL students and sample at least 30. Ask them the same question you asked the teacher. Record a video clip of a handful (not all) of the students as they answer.
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Work through all steps of a Hypothesis Test. Get your work checked by a teacher or peer from another group.
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GAME OF CHANCE PROJECT
January 2016, updated December 2016
Objective: To understand and apply probability rules and calculate expected value and standard deviation.
Development of Skills: We started off the lesson by looking at the probability of M&M's and playing cards to recognize patterns and develop the fundamental probability rules. Next I lectured on the basic and advanced probability rules and finally we played Casino Games to simulate probability and calculate the odds of winning. Throughout the unit, the students were assigned a game of chance project.
Documentation of Process:
Design your own original game of chance.
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Describe the rules, the payoffs, and the cost of playing.
The description of the rules must be so clear that anyone can play the game without asking you for additional explanation. Please note that this must be a game of chance, which means that probability is involved. (15 points)
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Games can be based on cards, dice, coins, spinners, random numbers, etc.
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The objective is to create a game that looks appealing, so many people would be eager to
play (10 points)
but...
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The expected value and standard deviation must make it likely that the person running the
game will realize a profit. You must show these calculations and explain what they mean in
terms of profit. (10 points)
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Originality and creativity counts. (5 points)
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Presentation and Playing (5 points) – You will present the game to the class and bring the
materials for the class to play your game.
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Your game description must be typed. (5 points)
You may work individually or with a partner. Copying of someone else’s idea for a game is expressly forbidden.
Reflection on lesson: The students were very creative in their project but they needed more guidance with using the probability rules.
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Updated: I updated the objectives the following year:
Step 1:
1. Decide on a game that you would like to develop.
2. Test your ideas through simulations of your game.
3. Will you be able to answer all of the questions in Step Two for your game?
4. Share your thoughts with Ms. Saracusa before proceeding.
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Step Two: Prepare your written project including each of the following:
1. Name your game. (5 points)
2. Describe the rules of your game. (10 points)
3. Play your game, recording the results, and determine the experimental probability of winning. “Playing of your game” may be done with the actual materials, or simulated with the calculator. Play a realistic number of times in order to feel somewhat confident about your experimental probability. (5 points)
4. Determine the theoretical probability of winning your game. This may be much more difficult than it sounds……so think about this aspect of your game as ideas grow. Of course your work must be shown! (10 points)
5. If it costs $2 to play your game, what must be the payoff in order to make this a fair game? (5 points)
6. Find two other individuals from our class to play your game. Provide them with the proper forms or worksheets to record their results. (5 points)
7. How do these results (in problem 6) compare to the experimental and theoretical probabilities that you found in problems 3 and 4 above? (5 points) Is there a significant difference? (5 points)
8. Are there any improvements or alterations that you think should be made to your game?
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